According to the website of China Internet of Things on February 7th, in 2023, China's economy has recovered from fluctuations, and stable factors have accumulated. The logistics operating environment continues to improve, and the industry as a whole is recovering well. The recovery of market demand is accelerating, and new driving forces such as high-end manufacturing and online consumption are clearly recovering. The quality of logistics supply is steadily improving, and collaborative and efficient logistics services such as multimodal transportation and air freight are developing comprehensively. The unit logistics cost has steadily decreased, and the industrial chain circulation is basically smooth. The internal driving force of logistics enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency has been strengthened, and the pace of strategic transformation of leading enterprises has accelerated, leading the industry towards standardization, refinement, and digitization.
1、 The process of economic structural transformation is accelerating, and logistics demand is synergistically driven
（1） Stable recovery of logistics demand scale, consolidation and consolidation of basic fields
The total amount of social logistics in China for the whole year was 352.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% based on comparable prices. The growth rate was 1.8 percentage points higher than the full year of 2022. From a quarterly perspective, the first quarter, second quarter, third quarter, and fourth quarter saw growth of 3.9%, 5.4%, 4.7%, and 5.4% respectively, showing a recovery trend of low, medium high, and stable at the beginning, with an overall positive recovery momentum throughout the year.
From a structural perspective, logistics demand in the fields of agricultural products, industry, consumption, and imports has steadily increased, and the recovery efforts have been better than last year. Among them, the demand for agricultural product logistics has maintained a good development trend. The total annual grain production was 695 million tons, and the production of pigs, cattle, sheep, and poultry meat was 96 million tons, reaching a new historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% and 4.5%. The total amount of agricultural product logistics is 5.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, maintaining a good development trend. The demand for industrial product logistics is steadily recovering. Throughout the year, the production of raw coal reached 4.6 billion tons, metallurgical manufacturing exceeded 3.3 billion tons, automobile production exceeded 30 million vehicles, and chemical production reached nearly 1 billion tons. The growth rate of industrial production scale has rebounded. The total amount of industrial product logistics for the year was 312.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a growth rate of 1.0 percentage point higher than the previous year. Each quarter has shown a continuous upward trend, especially in the fourth quarter where there has been a significant rebound, with growth exceeding 6% in both November and December, setting a new high for the year's growth rate. The demand for logistics for people's livelihood consumption is stable and improving. The total amount of goods logistics for units and residents throughout the year was 13.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, with a growth rate of 4.8 percentage points higher than the previous year. The rebound in the catering and retail sectors has significantly increased, and the demand for logistics related to catering and department store retail has shifted from a decrease to an increase, with year-on-year growth of 20% and 8.8% respectively; The demand for logistics related to convenience store retail increased by 7.5%, with a slight rebound in growth rate. The scale of import logistics demand continues to expand rapidly. The total import logistics volume for the whole year was 18.0 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.0%, and the growth rate remained above 10% in all quarters. Among them, the import logistics volume of bulk commodities has further expanded. The import of energy products such as crude oil, natural gas, and coal reached 1.16 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%; Iron, aluminum and other metal ore imports reached 1.46 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%.
（2） Solid progress has been made in industrial transformation and upgrading, and logistics in the new energy field is accelerating its recovery
The adjustment of logistics demand structure is accelerating, and the growth momentum is shifting towards high-end, intelligent, and green directions. From the perspective of the industrial sector, equipment manufacturing logistics maintained a good recovery trend throughout the year, with a growth rate 2 percentage points higher than all industrial logistics, especially in the fields of automobiles, intelligent equipment, etc., where the total logistics growth rate exceeded 10%, which has accelerated compared to the previous year. From the perspective of industrial formats, new formats such as e-commerce logistics and online services still maintain rapid growth. The average e-commerce logistics index for the whole year was 110.1 points, and the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8.4% year-on-year, both accelerating compared to the previous year. From the perspective of industrial circulation, green production methods are accelerating their formation, and the recycling, sorting, and distribution systems of renewable resources are gradually improving. The scale of logistics demand in related industries continues to expand, and the total amount of renewable resource logistics for the year has increased by more than 17% year-on-year.
2、 Optimizing the logistics development environment and accelerating the pace of industrial upgrading
The logistics infrastructure network system has been further improved, and modern logistics is accelerating its transformation towards high-quality development, providing a solid foundation for the smooth circulation of the industrial chain.
（1） The logistics infrastructure network is becoming increasingly complete, reaching the world's advanced level
The construction of logistics infrastructure is steadily advancing, and the areas of shortcomings are constantly being strengthened. Throughout the year, the investment in logistics related fixed assets investment such as transportation, warehousing and postal services increased by more than 10% year on year, and the logistics infrastructure guarantee system was further improved. Throughout the year, 30 national logistics hubs were newly constructed, forming a total of 125 logistics hub systems covering the whole country with diverse types, providing strong support for the integration and development of industry and logistics. More than 1000 county-level postal and distribution centers and 303000 village level postal and logistics comprehensive service stations were built throughout the year. The rural logistics network is becoming increasingly sound, and the areas of shortcomings are gradually strengthening. The total number of refrigerated trucks and cold storage facilities in the year was 431000, with a total volume of 228 million cubic meters. The logistics infrastructure in the professional field maintained stable growth.
In the latest Global Logistics Performance Index Report 2023 released by the World Bank, China's comprehensive logistics performance ranking has risen from 26th in 2018 to 20th. Among them, logistics infrastructure and international freight capacity rank in the top 10% of the world, reaching the international advanced level. The infrastructure ranking surpasses developed economies such as the United States and France, increasing by 6 places compared to 2018; The international freight capacity has increased by four places compared to 2018, and the scale of China's fleet has reached 250 million tons, an increase of about 10% year-on-year. However, it should also be noted that there are still certain gaps in international logistics clearance management, freight tracking capabilities, and other aspects, which are the focus of improving China's international logistics performance in the future.
（2） The revenue scale of the logistics industry has steadily increased, and the industry's operational stability has improved
The total revenue of the logistics industry for the year was 13.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, and the scale of logistics revenue continued to expand. The year-on-year growth rate of basic logistics revenue such as transportation, warehousing, and loading and unloading is around 3%, supporting the stable growth of the logistics market.
The sub sectors such as air transportation, multimodal transportation, and express delivery are showing a positive recovery trend. Supported by the upgrading of upstream industries and the rebound of cross-border e-commerce, the annual aviation logistics revenue has shifted from decline to increase, with a year-on-year growth of over 20%; With the promotion of policies and the enhancement of port adaptability, the annual multimodal transportation revenue has increased by over 15%; The express delivery market has entered a stable growth stage, with an annual increase of approximately 14% in express logistics revenue. The driving force of the high-end logistics market has increased, with the total revenue of the animal flow industry growing by about 1 percentage point.
The overall level of business has improved throughout the year, and the industry has steadily recovered. The average prosperity index of China's logistics industry for the whole year was 51.8%, which is 3.2 percentage points higher than the previous year. Most months were in a relatively high prosperity range of over 51%. The average fluctuation range of monthly business volume and new order index has narrowed compared to the previous year, indicating that the industry is running well, with improved stability, and the ability of logistics supply to adapt and respond to changes in demand has been enhanced.
The warehousing and logistics business is active, with continuous and efficient turnover. The average business volume index in China's warehousing index for the whole year is 52.4%. Since February, each month has been in a relatively prosperous range, with facility utilization and warehousing turnover efficiency improving month by month, indicating an increase in warehousing business activity and efficient industry operation, helping to reduce social inventory levels and supporting smooth upstream and downstream circulation of the industrial chain.
E-commerce logistics business is improving, and rural e-commerce is flourishing. The average index of e-commerce logistics business volume for the whole year was 120.3 points, showing a rebound trend for several consecutive months. Among them, the average index of rural e-commerce logistics business volume is 124.2 points, an increase of 8.7 points compared to 2022, showing a vigorous development trend.
3、 The efficiency of logistics operation continues to improve, and the unit logistics cost is steadily decreasing
The ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP was 14.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year. In the first quarter, the first half of the year, and the first three quarters, it was 14.6%, 14.5%, and 14.3%, respectively, showing a continuous downward trend. From a structural perspective, the logistics cost ratio of the main links has decreased, with transportation costs to GDP ratio of 7.8%, storage costs to GDP ratio of 4.8%, and management costs to GDP ratio of 1.8%, each decreasing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous year. The overall efficiency of logistics operation in all links throughout the year has been improved, with a steady decrease in the proportion of static links such as warehousing and storage. Funds and logistics have shifted towards dynamic links, and logistics elements have become more active.
The upgrading of economic structure provides strong external conditions for cost reduction and efficiency improvement. From an industrial perspective, the economic structure has been optimized and upgraded, and the growth momentum of the service industry has significantly rebounded. The proportion of the service industry has rebounded to 54.6%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous year. From the perspective of products, the added value of physical logistics has steadily increased, and industrial products, which account for nearly 90% of the total logistics volume in society, continue to shift towards high-end. The logistics volume and freight volume per unit GDP have both decreased, and the logistics demand coefficient and freight volume coefficient per unit GDP have decreased to 2.8 and 4.3 respectively throughout the year, both of which are relatively low levels in recent years. As a result, the cost of industrial logistics has decreased.
Upgrading organizational management is an important driving force for reducing costs and increasing efficiency in logistics. The matching of storage and transportation has significantly improved, and the level of production and sales linkage has been enhanced. At the end of the year, the sales rate of industrial enterprise products increased to 98.4%, and the turnover days of finished product inventory decreased by 0.1 days compared to the end of October. Transportation organization and management are moving towards efficiency and collaboration. The scale of air cargo has accelerated its recovery, with a total annual cargo and mail transportation volume of 7.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21%; From January to November, the number of port "scattered to centralized" operations and container rail water intermodal transportation increased by 19.6% and 15.7% year-on-year, respectively, with the proportion of rail water intermodal transportation increasing by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year; The overall average transportation distance has decreased, with long-distance transportation gradually shifting towards railway and water transportation. The average road transportation distance is 183km, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, and the transportation structure has been optimized.
The optimization of logistics policy system provides institutional guarantees for cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Multiple logistics quality improvement, efficiency enhancement, and cost reduction policies were introduced throughout the year. The long-term mechanism of differentiated toll collection on highways is continuously optimized and improved, and it is expected that the annual preferential reduction of vehicle tolls on highways will exceed 140 billion yuan; The preferential policies for urban land use tax on the land used for bulk commodity storage facilities will continue to be implemented, and the cost of raw material and primary product storage and logistics land will steadily decrease. The logistics cost reduction and efficiency improvement system will be further improved.
Overall, the decline in logistics cost levels is an inevitable result of high-quality economic development, as well as a concentrated reflection of the optimization of logistics organization and management models and the comprehensive effectiveness of macro industrial policies.
4、 The competition in the logistics market is intensifying, and the internal driving force for enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency is increasing
The competition in the logistics market is intensifying. In terms of the number of market entities, there are nearly 600000 legal entities in China's transportation, warehousing, and postal industries, over 5.8 million individual businesses, and over 6 million logistics related market entities. The market entry threshold for some fields is relatively low, and the overall number of enterprises is relatively large. From the perspective of market concentration, the scale of logistics enterprises is relatively small, with a large number of small and micro enterprises in some fields. The market concentration is still relatively low. Although the proportion of logistics business revenue of the top 50 logistics enterprises to the total logistics industry revenue in 2023 has increased, it is still less than 20%. From the perspective of enterprise order demand, although the main macro indicators of logistics have rebounded to varying degrees, phased and structural contradictions still exist, and individual enterprises in the logistics market feel significant differences. Research data shows that enterprises have a strong sense of weak market demand, with logistics companies accounting for over 30% and small and medium-sized enterprises accounting for nearly 50%, reflecting weak market order demand. From the perspective of price competition, the phenomenon of low price competition is more prominent in some fields, and "exchanging price for quantity" is still the main means of competition in some functional logistics service industries. The service price index in the logistics prosperity index is below 50% each month, with an average of 48.3% for the whole year, reflecting the overall low level of service prices in the logistics industry. In terms of water transportation, the annual average coastal (bulk) comprehensive freight index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange is 1014.9 points, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%; The annual average value of China's export container freight index is 937.3 points, a year-on-year decrease of 66.4%; In terms of express delivery, the average year-on-year decrease in prices is also around 4%. In this context, the profitability of micro enterprises is clearly under pressure. The preliminary summary data of the annual key survey shows that nearly 30% of logistics companies have incurred losses throughout the year, with an average revenue profit margin hovering at a low level of around 3%, significantly lower than the average level of 5% in normal years.
In the face of increasingly fierce market competition, logistics enterprises continue to strengthen their internal drive for innovative development, cost reduction, and efficiency improvement.
The trend of service upgrading is obvious, and the process of industrial integration is accelerating. Logistics enterprises actively promote the transformation of services to comprehensive supply chains, accelerate the process of industrial integration, increase the layout of emerging fields, and expand business space. The preliminary summary data of the annual key survey shows that the number of supply chain contract orders of key logistics enterprises increased by 24% year-on-year, and the revenue of integrated logistics business increased by nearly 30%. The proportion of comprehensive logistics business such as supply chain logistics management and integration has steadily increased, and integrated supply chain services in specialized fields such as fresh produce and clothing have good growth potential. Research shows that leading logistics companies such as Sinotrans are accelerating industrial integration, stabilizing cooperative relationships, extending service scope, increasing service stickiness, and helping customers achieve cost optimization. The logistics cost rate of upstream industrial and commercial enterprises is steadily decreasing.
The acceleration of digital transformation is helping to gradually improve the efficiency of the supply chain system. Logistics enterprises actively promote industrial synergy and symbiosis, assist in information sharing, and optimize resource allocation. Research shows that in recent years, top companies such as JD Logistics and SF Express have invested more than 50% more in digitalization related fields. Explore the application of digital methods such as big data models and intelligent algorithm analysis, based on internal enterprise management and customer service, to achieve full process logistics monitoring and scheduling, and help improve efficiency and service optimization.
The level of collaborative development has improved, and enterprise management is moving towards standardization. Under the influence of policy guidance, industry consensus, and other factors, the development of various sub sectors of logistics has been further standardized, and the level of cross disciplinary collaboration has been improved. The express logistics industry has intensively introduced national standards, focusing on service quality, green packaging, and other aspects; Develop information technology standards and technical specifications in the field of civil aviation cargo transportation, and accelerate the establishment of an information system integration standard system; The standardization process of logistics units is accelerating. Preliminary summary data from annual key surveys shows that the proportion of standardized pallets owned by enterprises has increased to over 70%, with top logistics enterprises reaching 85%. Logistics enterprises in various fields actively promote the standardization process, promote the standardized development of the industry, promote the upgrading of industry service quality, and achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement in enterprise operations. The overall cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue for key enterprises remained stable and slowed down, with a decrease of 0.3 yuan compared to the previous year.
Overall, the advantage of China's super large scale market is still evident, and the logistics market has great potential. With the gradual implementation and effectiveness of policies, the willingness of micro entities to invest is steadily increasing, and their expectations for the market are generally positive. In the future, logistics operations are expected to continue to develop steadily and positively. However, it should also be noted that China's economy still needs to face challenges such as domestic structural adjustment and weak international demand. Logistics demand will also transform from scale expansion to stock structure adjustment. The logistics market needs to be optimized and upgraded. Logistics enterprises should adhere to the concept of innovative development, deeply integrate into the supply chain service links of the real economy, and use efficient logistics services to support high-quality economic development.