The scale of logistics enterprises is getting larger and larger. In 2024, where will the logistics industry develop?
"Public to water" and "rail to water" can effectively reduce logistics costs. How much growth will multimodal transportation have in 2024?
Recently, a reporter from Top News Henan Business Daily conducted an exclusive interview with Liu Dacheng, Executive Vice President of China Academy of Industrial Development and Doctoral Director of the Department of Industrial Engineering at Tsinghua University.
The national team has entered the field, and the scale of Chinese logistics enterprises is getting larger and larger
In 2023, the scale of Chinese logistics enterprises is getting larger and larger.
According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, three logistics giants stood out in the top 50 logistics companies in China in 2023, namely China COSCO Shipping Group, Xiamen Xiangyu, and SF Express. The transportation capacity of these three enterprises has exceeded 100 million deadweight tons.
As the top ranked company on the list, China COSCO Shipping Group is renowned for its vast transportation capacity and globalized services. So far, China COSCO Shipping Group operates 1372 ships with a comprehensive carrying capacity of 111 million deadweight tons, ranking first in the world.
Xiamen Xiangyu was established in 1995. It has over 500 investment enterprises under its umbrella, with a revenue of 562.6 billion yuan and over 34000 employees in 2022. Its business areas include commodity supply chain, urban development and operation, comprehensive financial services, port shipping, innovation incubation, etc.
It is worth mentioning that China COSCO Shipping Group is both a state-owned enterprise and a state-owned enterprise; Xiamen Xiangyu is a state-owned enterprise. Among the top three, only SF Express is a private enterprise.
On May 31, 2023, in Zhengzhou, Henan, China, China Logistics Group International Express Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd., China Special Logistics Smart Emergency Monitoring Platform Co., Ltd., and Sinotrans Logistics Henan Co., Ltd. were unveiled on the same day. Among these three enterprises, China Logistics Group is both a central and state-owned enterprise, with the latter two being state-owned enterprises.
The entry of the national team into the logistics industry and continuous investment can effectively gather advantageous resources, and the Matthew effect of the logistics industry will become more apparent in the future.
Integrated development of port and shipping, port and city, increasing demand for multimodal transportation
"The increasing proportion of container usage, as well as the development of port and city integration, will gradually increase the demand for multimodal transportation in 2023," said Liu Dacheng.
Currently, multimodal transportation represented by rail water intermodal transportation has become an important breakthrough in the adjustment of China's transportation structure. With increasing policy support, multimodal transportation has entered the fast lane of high-quality development. According to data from the Ministry of Transport, from January to November 2023, China completed 9.35 million TEUs of container rail water intermodal transportation in ports and 8.5 million TEUs of port "loose to consolidated" operations, an increase of 15.7% and 19.6% year-on-year, respectively.
According to calculations, for every 1 percentage point increase in the proportion of multimodal transportation to the total social freight volume, it can reduce the total social logistics costs by about 0.9 percentage points and save about 100 billion yuan in cost expenditures.
The country is continuously building a basic platform for logistics, and the proportion of rail sea intermodal and rail water intermodal transportation led by railways is also increasing, driving the development of urban comprehensive transportation hubs composed of multimodal transportation. Moreover, the Pinglu Canal and the Inland Canal are also developing, such as the Xianggui Grand Canal from Guangxi to Hunan, the Zhejiang Jiangxi Guangdong Canal from Hunan to Jiangxi, etc., which are currently being planned and improved. In August 2022, the Pinglu Canal began construction.
According to the Henan Provincial Department of Transportation, the freight volume of "public to water" and "rail to water" in Henan is also increasing year by year. From January to October 2023, the province has completed a port throughput of 40.34 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%; The container loading and unloading volume was 73000 TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 119.7%.
Forecast for 2024
The globalization of manufacturing and logistics will shift towards a counter globalization dominated by regional trade
"The scale of 400000 ton seagoing ships has reached its limit, and the Strait of Malacca, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal have restricted the navigation of 300000 ton ships. However, the digital transformation of manufacturing dominated by generative AI and robots has made rapid progress. After the epidemic, the development of the world logistics industry has reached the 'ceiling board'." Liu Dacheng said.
In this situation, the global economy will transition from the WTO to the four major free trade zones.
These four major free trade areas include the European Free Trade Area (EU), the Pacific Rim Free Trade Area (CPTPP), the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA), and the ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA). Affected by this, in 2024, the globalization of manufacturing and logistics will shift towards a counter globalization dominated by regional trade.
"Unlike the ceiling of global logistics efficiency, China's logistics efficiency is constantly improving, industry concentration is increasing, and digital transformation is constantly strengthening." Liu Dacheng said that China's logistics is continuously developing from traditional to supply chain systems and industrial chain ecosystems.
It can be foreseen that in 2024, the logistics industry in China will further develop digital warehouses and smart warehousing. The integration of Amr robot three-dimensional warehouses, unmanned warehouses, unmanned vehicles, and drones can further improve transportation efficiency.
At the same time, benefiting from the rapid and irreversible development of prefabricated dishes, market-oriented cold chain logistics will play a greater role in agricultural product trade. This cycle will drive the gradual improvement of the quality of food, fresh produce, agricultural products, and other products in China, thereby affecting the overall development of cold chain logistics.
The main reason for the recovery of the logistics industry in 2024 is not only due to national policy support, but also related to the adjustment of global industrial structure. It cannot be separated from the use of digital technology, as well as the market-oriented operation of commercial enterprises and the improvement of the supply chain finance system.