On February 7th, the China Logistics Information Center released data showing that the total social logistics volume in China in 2023 was 35.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at comparable prices, an increase of 1.8 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2022. From a quarterly perspective, the first quarter, second quarter, third quarter, and fourth quarter saw growth of 3.9%, 5.4%, 4.7%, and 5.4% respectively, showing a recovery trend of low, medium high, and stable at the beginning, with an overall positive recovery momentum throughout the year.
Meng Yuan, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, stated in an interview with Securities Daily that in 2023, China's economy has recovered amidst fluctuations, and stable factors have accumulated. The logistics operating environment continues to improve, and the industry as a whole has recovered well. The recovery of market demand is accelerating, and new driving forces such as high-end manufacturing and online consumption are clearly recovering. The quality of logistics supply is steadily improving, and collaborative and efficient logistics services such as multimodal transportation and air freight are developing comprehensively. The unit logistics cost has steadily decreased, and the industrial chain circulation is basically smooth. The internal driving force of logistics enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency has been strengthened, and the pace of strategic transformation of leading enterprises has accelerated, leading the industry towards standardization, refinement, and digitization.
Accelerated adjustment of logistics demand structure
From a structural perspective, in 2023, logistics demand in the fields of agricultural products, industry, consumption, and imports will steadily increase, with better recovery efforts than in 2022. Among them, the demand for agricultural product logistics has maintained a good development trend. In 2023, the total grain production for the year was 695 million tons, and the production of pigs, cattle, sheep, and poultry meat was 96 million tons, reaching a new historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% and 4.5%. The total amount of agricultural product logistics is 5.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, maintaining a good development trend. The demand for industrial product logistics is steadily recovering. The total amount of industrial product logistics in 2023 was 312.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a growth rate 1.0 percentage point higher than that of 2022.
The adjustment of logistics demand structure is accelerating, and the growth momentum is shifting towards high-end, intelligent, and green directions. From the perspective of the industrial sector, equipment manufacturing logistics maintained a good recovery trend throughout 2023, with a growth rate 2 percentage points higher than all industrial logistics, especially in the fields of automobiles, intelligent equipment, etc., where the total logistics growth rate exceeded 10%, which has accelerated compared to 2022.
From the perspective of industrial formats, new formats such as e-commerce logistics and online services still maintain rapid growth. The average e-commerce logistics index for the whole year of 2023 was 110.1 points, and the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8.4% year-on-year, both accelerating compared to 2022. From the perspective of industrial circulation, green production methods are accelerating their formation, and the recycling, sorting, and distribution systems of renewable resources are gradually improving. The logistics demand scale of related industries continues to expand, and the total logistics volume of renewable resources in 2023 increased by more than 17% year-on-year.
Stable growth in revenue scale of logistics industry
The total revenue of the logistics industry in 2023 was 13.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, and the scale of logistics revenue continued to expand. The year-on-year growth rate of basic logistics revenue such as transportation, warehousing, and loading and unloading is around 3%, supporting the stable growth of the logistics market.
The average prosperity index of China's logistics industry for the whole year of 2023 was 51.8%, which is 3.2 percentage points higher than that of 2022. In most months, it is in a relatively high prosperity range of over 51%. The average business volume index in China's warehousing index for the whole year of 2023 was 52.4%.
China Logistics Information Center analyst Gao Shuai told Securities Daily that the above data shows that the industry is operating well, with improved stability, and logistics supply has improved its ability to adapt and respond to changes in demand. The activity of warehousing business has increased, and the industry is operating more efficiently, helping to reduce social inventory levels and supporting smooth upstream and downstream circulation of the industrial chain.
The average e-commerce logistics business volume index for the whole year of 2023 was 120.3 points, showing a rebound trend for several consecutive months.
It is worth noting that the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP is 14.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from 2022. Regarding this, Gao Shuai believes that in 2023, the overall efficiency of logistics operations in various links will improve, and the proportion of static links such as warehousing and storage will steadily decrease. Funds and logistics will shift towards dynamic links, and logistics elements will become more active.
Overall, the decline in logistics cost levels is an inevitable result of high-quality economic development, as well as a concentrated reflection of the optimization of logistics organization and management models and the comprehensive effectiveness of macro industrial policies.
The internal driving force of logistics enterprises continues to strengthen
Faced with increasingly fierce market competition, logistics enterprises continue to strengthen their internal drive for innovative development, cost reduction, and efficiency improvement.
The preliminary summary data of the 2023 annual key survey shows that the number of supply chain contract orders of key logistics enterprises increased by 24% year-on-year, and the revenue of integrated logistics business increased by nearly 30%. The proportion of comprehensive logistics business such as supply chain logistics management and integration has steadily increased, and integrated supply chain services in specialized sub sectors such as fresh produce and clothing have good growth potential.
From the research results, it can be seen that leading logistics companies such as Sinotrans are accelerating industrial integration, stabilizing cooperative relationships, extending service scope, increasing service stickiness, and helping customers achieve cost optimization. The logistics cost rate of upstream industrial and commercial enterprises is steadily decreasing.
At present, China's advantage in the ultra large scale market is still evident, and the logistics market has great potential. With the gradual implementation and effectiveness of policies, the willingness of micro entities to invest is steadily increasing, and their expectations for the market are generally positive. In the future, logistics operations are expected to continue to develop steadily and positively. However, it should also be noted that China's economy still needs to face challenges such as domestic structural adjustment and weak international demand. Logistics demand will transform from scale expansion to stock structure adjustment, and the logistics market needs to be optimized and upgraded. Logistics enterprises should adhere to the concept of innovative development, deeply integrate into the supply chain service links of the real economy, and use efficient logistics services to support high-quality economic development.